三陽又搶到先機??電動車下半年上場 - 機車
By Jacky
at 2023-05-04T08:12
at 2023-05-04T08:12
Table of Contents
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有望搶先Gogoro、光陽獲利 中油加油站變充電站,留得住兩千億?
2040年全面禁售燃油車,衝擊中油四分之一營收。中油以自家原料開發電池新材料,推出機
車換電系統和儲能櫃,與三陽合作的機車即將登場。電動車時代,它要繼續做前進的動力。
中油煉製研究所所長蔡銘璋手持自家開發的機車換電電池,這套系統將在下半年推出,初期
將先在六都建置。
有望搶先Gogoro、光陽獲利 中油加油站變充電站,留得住兩千億?
想像,當已預見自己公司2000億的生意即將消失,你會採取什麼行動?
這正是中油此刻面對的狀況。
中油最大收入來源,佔總營收兩成三的車用汽油,過去是公司穩如泰山的基石,如今,卻變
成30年內將消失殆盡的瀕危產品。
2040年,台灣將全面禁售燃油汽車和機車。以交通部統計平均車齡約十年計算,2050年就是
中油車用汽油生意的盡頭。
「如果中油再不轉型,我們就等死!」中油董事長李順欽不只一次在公開場合大聲疾呼。
中油的轉型早從一一年就開始啟動,包括投入研發關鍵材料,同時將商業模式從「加油」轉
為「充電」,繼續為汽機車供應能源。
商模1:廉價燃料變電池材料
中油的第一個商模轉變,是針對國內機車市場,推出自有的電池換電系統。機車電池裡頭的
負極材料,就是中油自行研發的「軟碳」。
電池四大材料正極、負極、隔離膜和電解液中,石墨系的負極材料由碳組成,正是石油業者
的老本行,成為中油轉進電池領域的契機。
「我們就是要把燃料變材料,提升產品的價值,」中油綠能科技研究所所長呂國旭,一一年
時仍在煉製研究所擔任專案經理,便是由他負責開發中油的第一款電池負極材料——軟碳。
他解釋,中油產製軟碳的原料「重質油」,其實是石油提煉過程中價值最低廉的副產品,相
較於以公升計的汽柴油,重質油是一噸一噸賣,大多給製造業作為燃料使用,因此期望透過
研發讓產品加值,提高利潤。
中油目前已委託電池業者有量科技,以自家軟碳作為負極材料生產電池,用於測試換電系統
。
中油-綠能-LTO-電池材料-電動車
呂國旭認為LTO材料的高安全性無可取代,有利於爭取電動巴士、儲能,甚至科技廠等利基
市場需求。圖為中油LTO材料的試驗產線一隅。(邱劍英攝)
充電快,有望搶先回本
不過國內已經有Gogoro及光陽兩套機車換電系統,中油能以後進者之姿佔得一席之地嗎?
中油煉製研究所所長蔡銘璋對此相當樂觀,他認為,軟碳比起主流的人造石墨,能延長電池
壽命、加快充電速度,一顆電池從20%充到80%只需20分鐘,讓中油能以較少的電池數量維持
換電網路運作,大幅降低成本。
此外,中油只扮演單純供應能源的中立角色,並不賣車,也是中油換電系統在推廣上的優勢
所在。
「讓車廠專心做車,電我來供應,」他解釋,中油換電系統要走「車電分離」的商業模式,
車廠可自行推出採用中油電池的電動機車,車主再另外向中油購買換電資費,「概念就跟我
們賣油是一樣的。」
中油現在已找上國內機車銷售冠軍三陽合作,預計在今年下半年,中油的換電系統和三陽的
第一款中油換電機車將同步推出。
中油評估,自產的軟碳電池壽命長、充電快,只要有5萬名車主使用,就能達到損益兩平,
有望成為台灣第一個賺錢的機車換電系統。
商模2:做儲能櫃賺電費價差
為了打開更大的電池市場,中油又在2014年透過工研院技術和專利轉移,投入開發另一項負
極材料「鈦酸鋰」(LTO),成為中油第二個商模轉變的關鍵。
在中油的藍圖中,未來將有不少加油站必須增建充電樁,供數量愈來愈龐大的電動車使用。
但大量、高強度的電力需求,將為區域電網帶來壓力,若尖峰時刻使用,還會採計較高的費
率,增加中油營運成本。
因此,中油充電站旁必須設儲能櫃,在費率低的離峰時充飽,作為存糧。一旦尖峰需求湧入
,儲能櫃裡的便宜電力,就能賺取電價價差,也減緩區域電網的壓力。LTO正是中油儲能櫃
的負極材料。
呂國旭指出,以LTO作為負極材料的電池,雖然能量密度低、價格也稍貴,但循環次數比石
墨系高出一倍且更安全,適合用於頻繁充放電的儲能櫃。
另外,LTO能讓電池不容易結晶,避免發熱燃燒,放在加油站也較安全。
呂國旭說明,LTO高安全性是優勢,適合用於電動巴士,甚至是科技廠裡的無人搬運車(AGV
)。
中油先前已投入約11億,即將在今年開出全台第一條LTO產線,年產能1000噸。預計到2025
年,耗資80億的軟碳產線也會開始投產,年產能將由現有的試驗產能6噸,成長千倍,到達6
000噸。
不過,中油想要立足電池材料領域,仍需更多實績證明自己的能耐。
一家電池廠主管指出,日本住友、東芝等老牌化學廠也能供應軟碳和LTO材料,中油在軟碳
雖有原料成本優勢,品質也不能輸太多,否則將會難以取得客戶信任。
不加油的未來正在加速實現,即便已提早因應,中油恐怕還是得繼續加快腳步,才能在淘汰
三陽又佔先機,期待下半年新車上市
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